By JC Zargo (@daddyzargs)
Thursday Night Football Sports Betting Plays of the Day: Broncos @ Saints
The Line: Broncos -3
The Total: 37
Most NFL experts wait until Halloween before passing judgment on teams. However, I believe we can properly evaluate at least 90% of the teams with 90% accuracy by Week 7.
However, we have a Thursday Night Football game between two teams that fall in that 10% zone of uncertainty. It’s the Denver Broncos at the New Orleans Saints as Sean Payton returns to his old stomping grounds.
Denver
The Broncos were emerging as a contender in the AFC West. But they suffered a brutal loss on Sunday when they allowed the Chargers to win in Denver for the first time since 2018. While the Broncos remained competitive in that one, close divisional games must be won if Denver expects to make a run at the Chiefs.
New Orleans
In comparison, the Saints opened the season looking for blood, but the sun came out on them in Week 3. They’ve now lost four straight, looking worse each week. Fortunately for New Orleans, they’re playing in the worst division and they sit just two games out of first place.
While injuries have plagued key pieces for the Saints, it’s the defense that has been their largest weakness. Spencer Rattler helped New Orleans put up twenty in the first half against Tampa Bay. While his second half was abysmal, he can’t be expected to keep up when the Saints’ defense allows 51.
The line for Thursday Night Football opened at Denver -1 and has climbed up to -3. Bettors shouldn’t worry about the spread as the Broncos should handle the Saints with ease. Three or less is an easy bet, and this is another Thursday Night game where an alt spread is a great play. Waiting until we have a better idea of who’s playing for New Orleans would be wise before settling on a number. In conclusion, (-3) at even money is a great play.
The Pick: Denver -3
37 is a wild total. Broncos games this season have averaged 35 points with Week 1 being a massive outlier — their game in Seattle finished at 46. However, New Orleans has given up 103 points over the last three weeks. Understanding there’s a strong possibility of Denver putting up 30, bettors should look at the Saints team total.
The Pick: New Orleans Saints Under 16.5 Points (+110)
The Plays:
Denver -3 (+100)
New Orleans Saints Under 16.5 Points (+110)
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