By Spread Astaire (@spreadastaire)
Here are some of my observations for this week in sports betting. The NFL remains the most unpredictable sport we have, which probably lends itself to its popularity. The upsets continued in Week 2 as seven underdogs won outright. Adding to the chaos, injuries have racked the landscape of fantasy football. We can all navigate the unstable world of NFL handicapping together.
1. The Only True Wisdom is in Knowing You Know Nothing
Our guy Socrates (So-Crates according to Bill and Ted) looked ahead to the 2024 NFL season with great prescience. Underdogs of six points or more are undefeated against the spread this season. Of course, some of these teams will be flukes but some of these teams are for real.
The New Orleans Saints epitomize this. They could very well be the breakout Team of the Year under new offensive coordinator Klint Kubiak. Or maybe this could be a short span of brilliance after which they will regress to our priors on this team.
Right now I’m leaning towards this team being for real, but I would not be surprised if they are an early-season wonder. We’ve seen this many times. Teams jump out with hot starts and then regress as the season progresses. The Saints will be a fun team to watch and could be a surprise team in an NFC that seems ready for new blood at the top. The AFC is deep and the NFC is wide-open.
2. This Week in Sports Betting Takeaway: Fantasy Football is in Shambles
The spate of injuries in fantasy football is absolutely wild. Many teams at the top of the Best Ball Mania leaderboard have players that are going to be out for a long time, such as Cooper Kupp, Deebo Samuel, and Isaiah Pacheco. It feels like these best ball teams have become more of a lottery than ever.
I’ve harped on it before but the NFL really shot itself in the foot when they allowed the players to reduce practice time. These players’ bodies aren’t ready for the full-speed contact of the NFL after spending a summer walking through practices and t-shirts and shorts.
The body needs to be ready for this high physical impact and the current way of approaching the training camp. The preseason is not giving these players bodies adequate time to adjust to the toughness that the NFL season requires.
The NFL also needs to make the rosters bigger. Why can’t these guys afford to carry 60 or even 70 men? This would lead to more continuity and more development of backups. The owners are making billions of dollars per year, so let’s put a little more money out there and expand these rosters for the sake of the game.
3. These Quarterbacks Aren’t as Bad as We Think
Scoring is down and the quarterbacks are being blamed. It’s completely unfair in my mind. First of all, with the limited practice time that I mentioned earlier, these offensive linemen are not getting the opportunity to develop like they would have in the past. This leaves them woefully unprepared for this new flood of huge, athletic defensive lineman.
The athleticism in the NFL is off the charts. Never have we seen such a deep cadre of pass rushers ready to crush a quarterback. Thus, quarterbacks get very little time in the pocket, meaning everything has to go short because they don’t have the time to push the ball down the field.
Not only are defensive linemen getting faster, but so are the safeties and cornerbacks as well. This is giving the wide receivers less space to operate in. 20 years ago, the average safety ran a 4.8 or a 4.9. Now the average safety is at 4.5 or 4.6. The average corner used to run a 4.6 or 4.7. 4.4 speed used to be a great trait but now it’s become standard.
All this means is that these zones are way more effective because the defensive players can close so much more effectively. So while everybody wants to blame the quarterbacks, their offensive lines are worse and the defensive zones are tighter.
I’m personally fine with it. I’m not a big fan of the offenses going off. But, before we blame the quarterback, let’s look at the way the game has changed and not be so quick to run these young men into retirement and slander their abilities.
4. Bryce Young Being Benched
Well, we get to find out if Bryce Young is really that bad as Andy Dalton will take over as the QB for the Carolina Panthers. Big bettors seem to think so as this line has been steamed from -7 down to -5. I believe that this is just going to illustrate what a mess this Panthers organization is and how replete of talent this Panthers team really is.
Who will the Panthers blame when the Raiders take them to the woodshed this weekend? The Raiders defensive line is one of the best in the league and they will be able to run the ball against this atrocious Carolina defense.
After struggling to get the run game going the first two weeks, I think the Raiders run game is going to look great in their home opener. We’ll realize that the Panthers downfall cannot be blamed on one short, diminutive man.
While Bryce Young might not be an NFL quarterback, the idea that he is solely responsible for the Panthers ineptitude and woes is laughable to me. This whole organization will be exposed this weekend when the Raiders put it on them. And let’s be fair, as much as I love the Raiders, they are a mediocre, fringe playoff team.
When they destroy the Panthers this week we will see how far this organization is from competing. There are tiers in the NFL, and the Panthers are at the bottom of the list and in a tier of their own. Let the Sharps continue to back the Panthers just like they bet the awful Browns rendition in 2017
Don’t let your numbers fool you, this team is not built to be competitive.
This Week in Sports Betting Best Bet: Raiders -5 (-110)
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