By Spread Astaire (@spreadastaire)
This Week in Sports Betting 10-23-24
Sports are in full swing right now. College football has been more exciting than ever. The NFL continues its hold upon our nation’s consciousness. The NBA has tipped off. Here are some of my observations from a fun week of sports.
Also, check out my best bet for the week at the bottom of this article.
This QB Class Will Not Be as Good
As a Raiders fan, I eagerly tuned in to the showdown between Georgia and Texas on Saturday. It was expected that two quarterbacks potentially slated for the first round of the draft would be on display, but the efforts put forth by both men left much to be desired.
Texas QB Quinn Ewers looked terrible – no wonder he was replaced by Arch Manning halfway through the game. Manning didn’t do much better against the fearsome Georgia defense, however, there was nothing I saw from Ewers that made me think he was worthy of a first-round pick.
Georgia QB Carson Beck was not that impressive either. Georgia won this game on the strength of their play at the line of scrimmage. Beck did what was needed for the team to win, however, he didn’t show the ability to get it done at the NFL level. Beck might have a place in the NFL but there’s no way he’s going to lead a poor franchise to a victory. Beck’s only hope would be to play for a strong franchise and just do what he’s asked. I’m not drafting a game manager in the first round.
So the hopes for a star quarterback in this draft come down to Cam Ward and Shedeur Sanders. It’s a rough year to be drafting a QB after last year’s talented class. And knowing the Raiders, they’ll blow this pick as well.
Injuries Continue to Mount in the NFL
Sometimes I wonder why we even bother with preseason previews in the NFL. This sport has become a war of attrition more than ever. The player’s bodies simply aren’t ready for the action because the new CBA rules prevent the amount of practice time needed to be ready for the rigors of the NFL. This is obvious in the product on the field and the constant injuries we are seeing take place. However, due to the popularity of fantasy and gambling, the NFL has no incentive to fix this problem.
The San Francisco 49ers are the latest contender struck down by injuries. 49ers GM John Lynch has to be sick that he gave in to the demands of WR Brandon Aiyuk. Lynch gave Aiyuk a huge contract and got absolutely zero production for it this season. Now the 49ers will be hamstrung by the salary cap, and I will not be surprised if we never see the same level of play from Aiyuk. The 49ers are struggling with age and injuries, and now the championship window might be finally closed.
The NBA is Back
I like the NBA because I can make money betting it. Basketball probably has the least informed fan group of any of the major sports. Most basketball fans just want to argue about stats and offense. Most don’t understand the team aspect of the game and are more focused on the individual players that they root for. Also, most casual NBA fans don’t ever think about defense and only consider a player’s ability to score when rating him. This means the NBA Market is much weaker than the sharp NFL Market.
I sure am glad that I can make money betting on the sport because otherwise, my interest would be waning right now. Nonetheless, all of my favorite players are stuck in terrible organizations.
Ant, The Joker and the Greek Freak
Anthony Edwards is a great young player who I really want to root for. However, he is stuck on the Minnesota Timberwolves, who have forever floundered at the bottom of the standings. Rather than give Anthony Edwards strong co-stars to play with, he has to try and elevate Rudy Gobert and Julius Randle. Unfortunately, Edwards’ great talent doesn’t make up for such overpaid teammates.
Nikola Jokic is fun to watch in Denver. However, the cheapness of the organization means the depth of the Nuggets continues to get worse. First the team lost Bruce Brown because they didn’t want to pay him. Now they’ve lost Kentavius Caldwell-Pope. So while Jokic is a great player, he doesn’t have enough good teammates around him for this team to be able to compete. It’s too bad because Jokic is one of the most fun players we’ve seen come into the league in years. But being saddled by the cheap Denver organization will keep him from reaching his full potential as a player.
The Milwaukee Bucks have destroyed any hope for Giannis Antetokounmpo to win another championship in their uniform. When they traded away Jrue Holiday they lost the identity of the team. They traded Holiday for an older player who can’t play a lick of defense, Damian Lillard. This was an instant downgrade. It also gave Holiday to their number one rival, the Boston Celtics. At this point, Milwaukee’s championship window had closed. Then to compound the error, they hired one of the worst coaches in the NBA, Doc Rivers. It’s too bad because Giannis is a great player, a great person, and he’s really fun to root for. But being saddled by the inept Milwaukee organization he will not lift another ring unless he leaves Milwaukee.
This Week in Sports Betting: My Favorite Bet for Week 8
Surprisingly, my biggest edge in projections this week is the Cincinnati Bengals over the Philadelphia Eagles. This jumped out to me because the Eagles are a team that I’ve had a tough time getting the handle on this year. Some weeks they look great, other weeks they look moribund. However, I’m going to trust the projections here and place a bet on the Cincinnati Bengals.
The Cincinnati Bengals looked terrible to start the year but with their defensive line being back intact they are not going to be an easy team to run the ball against. And, of course, I get the much better quarterback at home in Joe Burrow. While Jalen Hurts has been good this year, he does not have Burrow’s accuracy or ability to sit in the pocket and dissect the defense. Without the run game to support him, I don’t trust Hurts to be able to win a shootout against Joe Burrow. Therefore, the projections will be trusted and I’ll lay it with the Cincinnati Bengals.
Best Bet: Cincinnati Bengals -2.5 (-108) at Bookmaker
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