By Spread Astaire (@spreadastaire)
This Week in Sports Betting 9/11/24
The NFL season kicked off and what an exciting first weekend of sports betting it was! College football continues to roll on as well. The leaves are changing, fall is in the air and football season is in full swing.
Make sure you read the entire “This Week in Sports Betting” to get my free NFL best bet of the week.
1. Nebraska’s Big Win
I was listening to our Nuke the House NCAA college football show on the way up to gamble in Reno this weekend. Our lead college football analyst Ray Greyfox gave some insight into problems that Colorado coach Deion Sanders will have in the transfer portal. I feel he nailed this perfectly as Deion is able to get tons of skill players in the transfer portal, but offensive and defensive linemen are less likely to switch schools. This was quite evident in Nebraska when the Cornhuskers completely controlled the line of scrimmage. Deion’s going to have to recruit some big men to go with all these stars on the outside.
2. What a Week for the NFL
The Kansas City Chiefs look to be the best team in the NFL with their strong win over the Baltimore Ravens. I didn’t like the prevent defense at the end, because when Ravens QB Lamar Jackson was under pressure he was not effective at all. However, Chiefs DC Steve Spagnola and the Chiefs pulled it out. This was in spite of a lack of aggression in their defensive play calls to end the game.
3. Jordan Love Injury
The NFL is absolutely ridiculous for forcing the players to go down to Brazil to try and play that game. What were they hoping to accomplish? All they did was ruin hopes for the Packers fans and potentially it could have been a lot worse. Packers QB Jordan Love just signed a new contract and is one of the most exciting young players in football. For them to risk his health and the health of the rest of the players on that field that was not NFL level is an absolute disgrace.
I know the NFL is trying to expand in the international market. However, they should not do so at the risk of their players. I’m happy that Love is only out for three to four weeks but he shouldn’t have missed any time. The NFL needs to look at this International policy if it comes to be by putting their players at risk.
3. My Favorite Coach from Compton
Anyone watching my work knows that I love Raiders head coach Antonio Pierce. However, he let me down with some gutless play calling this weekend. First, failing to go for it and kicking a 32-year-old field goal on 4th and 1 at his own 10-yard line was bad. But, the decision to punt on 4th and 1 on his own 43 with 7 minutes to go was egregious. The Raiders probably wouldn’t have won anyway but I would have liked to see some more toughness from my coach.
4. Teams in Trouble
I know we’re not supposed to overreact to Week 1, but boy the New York Giants, Carolina Panthers, the Browns are in big trouble. What do these teams have in common? Terrible quarterback play.
Of the three errors, Carolina can get out of trouble the easiest. Unlike the Browns and Giants, they did not commit a big portion of their salary cap to a player who is undeserving of the contract. The Panthers can muddle through, get a top pick and move on from Bryce Young in the offseason. However, the Browns and the Giants are going to be stuck in financial turmoil due to their bad decisions with the salary cap.
Browns quarterback DeShaun Watson is a shell of himself and should no longer be on an NFL field. And Daniel Jones is no fun to watch. I feel bad for Giants fans if they are going to be hamstrung with this team all year. I know we’re not supposed to write teams off after Week 1 but these three teams look like they’re going to be in big trouble and going to be a big fade all season.
5. Detroit Dominated the Line of Scrimmage
I loved watching the Lions’ drive in overtime of Sunday Night Football. With six runs and one screen pass that was essentially a run, Detroit relied on their league-best offensive line to get the win. With an emphasis toward passing, these new linebackers are smaller and quicker than they used to be. This gives teams an advantage on the run. If Detroit continues to maul their way to victory through a rushing attack, especially in the red zone, I wonder if NFL teams will copycat and we will see a return to more heavy rushing attacks. I love it, but the analytics guys who want teams to pass every play are going to be in hell if Detroit continues to have success!
Best Bet
Last week I faded the Rams against the Lions but I expect them to bounce back in Arizona this week. Rams Head Coach Sean McVay is 11-2-1 ATS against the Cardinals in his career. Cardinals QB Kyler Murray is 1-7 SU against the Los Angeles Rams.
The Rams looked excellent and Sean McVay showed that he can scheme out of the trouble with his weak offensive line by having QB Matt Stafford get rid of the ball quickly, like Tom Brady and Peyton Manning used to.
Unfortunately, Puka Nacua suffered a PCL sprain and was placed on injured reserve. The Rams WR will miss at least the next four games.
But the defense is better than I expected as well, with first-round pick Jared Verse providing excellent punch to that defensive unit. The Rams looked good, and even though they lost in Week 1, they will be able to get back on the winning track in Week 2 against Arizona.
The Play: Los Angeles Rams money line (+112 at Fanduel)
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