By Holden Kushner (@Holdenkushner)
Betting the Super Bowl MVP one month before the big game kicks off might seem crazy, but it can be very profitable. There’s also a method to the madness.
When we are building out our Super Bowl MVP bets portfolio, we first need to feel strong about multiple teams that can win it all. In this case, we’ll narrow our pool down to the Bills, Ravens, Chiefs, Lions and Eagles. You can adjust your pool as you feel necessary.
From that list, we want to analyze the players from those teams that could win the award and make sure the number that we bet allows us to do two different things. One, bet on a player with a number that’s big enough that it allows us to make a sizable profit. And two, bet on a player who is a big enough longshot to allow us to hedge on another player or players in the Super Bowl that will still allow us to win a sizable profit.
Right now at nukethehouse.com, our daily bets sheet already has multiple Super Bowl MVP bets.
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One of those wagers is a 45/1 shot on Derrick Henry to win the award. Why? As our Chief Profitability Officer, Jason “Keg” Paglia says, “You can absolutely be drawing dead after this weekend (if the Ravens lose). But, if the Baltimore Ravens are in the Super Bowl, how are you feeling about that 45/1 ticket on Derrick Henry? You know what that number is going to be on Super Bowl Sunday? 3/1”.
I also interjected and said that if the Ravens do get to the Super Bowl, you can always hedge the Henry bet by backing Lamar Jackson or a player or two on the opposing team and still secure a nice profit.
Now, are the chances good that Henry will win the Super Bowl MVP? No. But We’re getting a huge potential payout, even if we hedge heading into the game.
It’s a Long Shot
One thing we should remember is that in this particular case, running backs just don’t win the Super Bowl MVP award very often.
It hasn’t happened since Broncos RB Terrell Davis won the award 27 years ago.
Since a RB won the award, we’ve had three linebackers, a cornerback, five wide receivers and 17 QB’s take the trophy home.
Patrick Mahomes alone has won three of the past five. But it’s tough to bet the chalk because you’re only getting a +450 price on him. And if we bet four or five players in our portfolio, backing Mahomes wins us nothing.
Maybe you take Amon-Ra St. Brown if you think the Lions will win it all. He’s a 60/1 longshot and we know that wide receivers can win the award. If you are taking the Eagles to win it all, AJ Brown at 50/1 is a solid look.
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In conclusion, many factors play into betting the Super Bowl MVP market. If you’re interested in learning more about it and tailing our best bets, join the winners here.
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