By Matt Dickson
Here’s our sports betting play of the day for August 12th, 2024
Parlay: Yankees @ White Sox and Rockies @ Diamondbacks
Lines: Yankees -300 + Diamondbacks -255
Sports Betting Play of the Day Breakdown:
This is an elemental approach. We have two good teams against two bad teams. To break it down further, the Diamondbacks are a good home team (34-26) and the Yankees are a good road team (38-22).
Arizona faces a Rockies that is 17-43 away from Denver. New York takes on a historically horrible White Sox team that is 28-91. Both the Yankees and Diamondbacks are better in all facets of the game. They’ll both have the starting pitching advantage, as well as the bullpen advantage and a clear advantage at the plate.
Strategy:
I enjoy writing about betting theory. When betting parlays, we have to make sure the win expectation is greater than the line the bookmaker is putting out. I put the Yankees leg at around a 78% win percentage. I have the Diamondbacks leg at around 75%.
With these calculations, this parlay will cash approximately 59% of the time.
Now Fanduel gives us a -108 which is an expected win percentage of 52%. In my estimation we’re getting about 7% of an edge.
Let’s not overthink this one. Don’t listen to the noise that you should never bet parlays in MLB. I’ve been doing it for 24 years and have yet to have a losing season.
Best Bet:
Money Line Parlay: Yankees + Diamondbacks -108
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