By Spread Astaire (@spreadastaire)
I’ll have a best bet for the Broncos vs Chargers game on Sunday at the bottom of the article. But first let’s talk NFL parity and upsets. We’ll also look at college football upsets.
Now, we’re through 5 weeks of NFL action in the books and we have never seen more parity in the league. The best teams are not dominant like they once were. Other than about 5 or 6 truly terrible teams, everybody’s got a shot every week.
Furthermore, the world of college football looks to be the same after a weekend of many upsets. Football has become less and less predictable. Let’s try and figure out why.
This Week in Sports Betting: College Football Upsets
No one in the rankings was safe this weekend as there were multiple college football upsets.
Arkansas got a tight win over Tennessee. Minnesota took out USC. Washington got the win over Michigan. The biggest upset of all was Vanderbilt taking out Alabama.
Alabama was coming off their huge win over Georgia. Bama seemed to be in the driver’s seat to have the number one ranking at the end of the year. After falling short, we realized that parity has come to the world of college football.
With the new NIL rules and the college football transfer portal, coaches have less time to develop each player.
The lack of consistency is showing. However, some would argue this makes the sport more exciting as it’s not the same teams beating up on lesser teams every week.
NFL Parity and Upsets: Jets fire Robert Saleh
In the NFL, it’s obvious why some organizations are not successful. They are simply run poorly. The New York Jets are an example of this.
The Jets hitched their wagon to a 40-year-old quarterback. Looking at the tape this season, Aaron Rodgers has been around the 17th to 20th-best quarterback in the league. Consequently, upending your franchise for this level of play was not going to get it done.
Furthermore, the Jets also traded the draft picks to acquire Rodgers. These draft picks could have been used to shore up an offensive line which is at the core of the Jets offensive woes. The Jets offensive line ranks 27th in the league when it comes to win rate.
The Jets also traded a third-round pick for a player they did not have a contract extension negotiated. So they have essentially thrown away another third-round pick just to have a player, Hassan Reddick, embroiled in a holdout.
The Saleh Issue
Now, do I think Robert Saleh was a good head coach? No. I do think that Robert Salah is an excellent football coach, however. Saleh deserves tons of credit for drafting and developing one of the best defenses in the league. Saleh was hired for his defensive expertise, and he delivered on that front.
Unfortunately for Saleh, he had the wrong combination of quarterback and offensive coordinator. If he was able to continue to develop his defense while having a sharp young offensive coordinator and a younger quarterback on board, he could have been successful in the NFL.
But he worked for the Jets, who went all in on a past-his-prime Rodgers. Rodgers then forced the franchise to hire one of the worst offensive coordinators in the league, Nathaniel Hackett.
This was too much even for the Jets fearsome defense to overcome and Saleh was released. While Saleh might not be head coaching material, he will return to being one of the best defensive coordinators in the league. Whichever team can add him to their staff next year will be happy for his presence.
Above all, the Jets will continue their path towards mediocrity, getting in their own way, and making decisions that inhibit the franchise from ever truly competing for a championship.
Injuries Continue to Mount
For older handicappers such as me, one of the toughest things in capping the NBA and NFL lately has been the amount of injuries. They completely change the complexion of each team. As someone who bases their projections on past performances of a team, I’m constantly being riddled with how to adjust for multiple players being in and out of the lineup.
But this has made handicapping the league week to week even tougher for me. I think we see it in the parity that’s being shown around the NFL. A team like the Saints can look great for two weeks and then lose half of their offensive line and go back to being a moribund franchise.
In addition, with no one being able to stay healthy, watching the tape is more important than ever. So while I still do projections I’m finding myself relying on them less and less, as we have incomplete data sets to form these projections.
The world of sports betting is fun that way. You can never just use one single method. Things are constantly changing and you’re going to have to adapt your methods to handicap. I’m happy that I’ve been able to do so successfully so far, but I know I have a lot of work ahead to stay ahead of the sportsbooks especially where NFL parity and upsets are concerned.
Beyond NFL Parity and Upsets: My Favorite Bet This Week
One team my projections really like this week is the Denver Broncos. I have them winning outright against the Los Angeles Chargers. To be fair, as mentioned earlier, maybe I’m underweighting the Chargers because they have not been playing at full health this season. They should get many players back into the lineup coming off of a bye.
However, the Denver Broncos are underrated in my mind because of the excellent defense they have created this season. Patrick Surtain is arguably the best corner in the league, and the Broncos have been solid at all three levels of the defense.
In conclusion, I love catching three points at home in a division game so give me the Denver Broncos +3.
This Week in Sports Betting Best Bet
Denver Broncos +3 (-108)
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