By Tyler Hicks (@TH412_)
Here are my thoughts on who will be the Kings of the North in the Nuke The House | Sports Betting NFC North futures betting guide.
The division features multiple Super Bowl contenders. Will the Lions or Packers claim the crown, or can the Bears surprise with their rookie QB?
Detroit Lions: Super Bowl or Bust
The Detroit Lions are the betting favorite to win the division at +140. They finished last season 12-5 before falling to the 49ers in the NFC Championship game.
How can this team possibly improve on last season’s historic showing after winning the NFC North crown?
The Lions lost starters and some key depth pieces on both sides of the ball, with guard Jonah Jackson, DT Benito Jones, safety CJ Gardner Johnson, safety Will Harris, CB Cam Sutton and others departing.
Lions Additions
The defending NFC North champs signed up DT DJ Reader, Edge rushers Marcus Davenport & Mathieu Betts and also signed multiple pieces in the secondary.
Detroit used three of their first four picks on secondary pieces in the draft, so they did their best to replace the pieces they lost this off season.
Favorable Schedule for Goff
Looking at their schedule, Detroit plays three of their first four games at home before the bye. They also play 14 games indoors which is a huge advantage for QB Jared Goff, who’s known to play better indoors.
I expect this offense to be just as potent as last year.
In the end my projections have this team finishing the season with a 12-5 record again coming up just short of a second-straight division title due to the absolute powerhouse that’s going to be playing in Lambeau Field this year.
Green Bay Packers: Ascending Quarterback
The Packers team finished the year winning six of their last eight regular season games before embarrassing the Dallas Cowboys in the first round. They played the NFC champ 49ers to the wire before losing by only three points in the end.
Packers offense
This year’s team has an improved offensive line, a rising star at Quarterback, a running back upgrade and one of the deepest WR cores in the league to go along with the incoming draft class of rookies.
Jordan Love’s TD-Int ratio from week 10 until they lost to the 49ers in the divisional round was 23-3. He was one of the best if not the best QB in that span.
At running back, swapping Aaron Jones for Josh Jacobs seems like trading one injury prone back for another. However, the elite pass game Green Bay has should allow Jacobs beat up on defenses that are forced to respect the pass and not just loading up the box.
Packers Defense
Last year, this unit gave up too many explosive plays and they team finished the season 26th in defensive EPA. This must improve.
When the regular season ends, I have this Green Bay team finishing 13-4 with Love putting togethers his best season and also possibly winning his first MVP trophy.
The experience this team gained going on their playoff run last year should benefit them a ton this season. I’m expecting them to be a real super bowl contender this year.
The Play: Over 9.5 wins (-130)
Chicago Bears: All About Caleb Williams
The Bears who made a ton of moves this offseason. They moved on from Quarterback Justin Fields to draft Caleb Williams with the first overall pick (thanks Carolina).
They added WR Rome Odunze with the 9th pick in the draft and traded for Keenan Allen.
This gives Caleb Williams three top tier receiving weapons to spread the ball around to.
Add in Tight End Cole Kmet and the running back room led by D’Andre Swift, and this team could have a potent offense sooner rather than later.
In free agency they also signed multiple offensive linemen to bolster that unit to protect Williams.
Bears defense
This unit added multiple pass rushers who will have the luxury of playing off of Montez Sweat, who looked solid for the Bears last season. The Bears added to an already solid secondary lead by CB Jaylon Johnson.
Chicago also has the 29th easiest schedule. Williams and the Bears could put together a similar season to what CJ Stroud did with the Texans last season. I’m confident we see it come together that fast.
Williams was known to take a lot chances with his throws in college looking for the big plays doing that at the next level could lead to a lot of turnovers.
The USC product has the talent to make an immediate impact but I’m leaning toward seeing some growing pains in his first year even with the easy schedule.
I have this team finishing 6-11 on the season. If we do see a poised Williams who is protecting the ball well, this team could easily make a run at a wild card spot in his rookie season.
The Play: Under 8.5 wins (+130)
Minnesota Vikings: Wholesale Changes
I have little to no hope for this Vikings team to improve on the 7-10 record they posted last season as they lost starting QB Kirk Cousins to the Falcons in the offseason.
After Cousins went down with a ruptured achilles, Minnesota’s ship went down last year.
This season they’ll be starting the year with Sam Darnold at Quarterback. Rookie first-round pick, JJ McCarthy suffered a season-ending knee injury.
At least Darnold will have Justin Jefferson to throw the ball to.
The Vikings defense lost its top two sack leaders in Danielle Hunter and D.J. Wonnum to free agency. Minnesota also lost starting LB Jordan Hicks who started 30 games for the Vikings since arriving in 2022.
Their biggest signing in free agency was RB Aaron Jones, who has had a ton of hamstring problems over the last couple years. The Vikings will rely on Ty Chandler to take most of the RB work if Jones misses time.
I’m very low on the Vikings and I believe they’ll be one of the three worst teams in the NFL this season. I don’t see them winning anymore than four games.
My projections actually have them only winning a total of one game, finishing way under their win total of 7.5. I also will be sprinkling some money on this team to have the worst record at +1300.
Best bets:
Vikings Under 6.5 and 5.5 wins
Vikings worst record in the NFL 13/1
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