By Ray Greyfox (@raygreyfox)
North Carolina Tar Heels
Can UNC improve upon last season? Here’s our Nuke the House UNC football futures betting advice for 2024.
This is an improved Tar Heels football team. The schedule is not overwhelming and all we are asking is a repeat of last year’s 8 wins to cash our over 7.5 wins position. Will Mack Brown lead us to the promised land?
UNC head coach, Mack Brown is a fantastic football coach and a man I have spent many hours on a golf course with. I was with him when I got the call that my youngest son was on his way into the world. But don’t be confused…this is not a sentimental play.
Brown has compiled wins at every stop in his storied career. While in Austin, Texas leading the Longhorns (1998-2013) Brown racked up a 158-48 record. He is now in his second stint in Chapel Hill, where to date he has gone 282-149-1. The man is a winner, plain and simple.
Brown returns 13 starters off a team that went 8-5 last year. If he can garner those same 8 wins this year we can cash this over 7.5 regular season win total.
Replacing Drake Maye
The first thing doubters will say is “But they lost Drake Maye to the NFL!! You can’t just replace that production”! Before the portal I would tend to agree with this blanket statement. But now, in 2024, replacing moving parts isn’t the hard part, getting them to gel is.
Max Johnson will get the start at QB. Those of you in Baton Rouge may recognize this name. Johnson had 14 starts over the last two seasons at LSU, throwing for 3884 yards, at a 60% completion percentage, hurling 35 TD’s with only 7 INT’s. This is a more than capable replacement for Maye. Johnson should thrive under the tutelage of Brown and new OC Chip Lindsey, who has filled the same role at UCF, Auburn, Arizona State, and Southern MISS as well as a stint as Head Coach at Troy.
The Heels will also bring back the services of tailback Omarion Hampton, who has run up over 1,900 yards in 15 starts. Both starting Wide Receiver’s return as well.
Although the offensive line lacks significant starts, they do have size and are led by OL Coach Randy Clements. He has been coaching offensive lines at the NCAA level for 21 seasons now, and is a known commodity. From 2010-2020 his offensive lines led their offensive units to no worse than top 13 in the country, twice leading the number one offense in the nation. To win games you must play well in all three phases of the game; offense, defense AND special teams.
Tar Heels Defense
On the other side of the ball, seven starters return from a unit that allowed 27.3 ppg last season. Led by former Georgia Tech and Temple Head Coach Geoff Collins, I look for this unit to be vastly improved.
Their special teams are led by Larry Porter who held the same role at Auburn, and should improve on their #118 ranking last season.
UNC is very well coached and should improve in all three phases.
Schedule
I find things most favorable for UNC in 2024. There is a very real possibility that we are cashing this ticket before Halloween!!!
UNC opens at Minnesota, then hosts Charlotte, UNC Central, JMU before going on the road to Duke (rivalry game) and back home for Pitt, Georgia Tech and wrapping up their first eight games at UVA on 10/26.
The only game they look to be underdogs is week 1 at Minnesota (+2.5 currently at Bet Rivers), and that would certainly not be a monumental upset. If they pull off that game on August 29, then the over is all but over. After their “game of the year” against FSU in Tallahassee on 11/2, they get a bye week to recover before facing Wake, BC and North Carolina State.
Final Thoughts on UNC
Last year, UNC racked up 8 wins facing South Carolina out of conference, as well as beating Minnesota 31-13 and faced both Miami and Clemson in ACC play. The team is better, the schedule is softer, and we are asking for only 8 wins to get this over.
Best Bet: UNC OVER 7.5 regular season wins (-140)
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