By Spread Astaire (@spreadastaire)
I’m looking to bounce back after a rough Week 3 in the NFL. My beloved Raiders sunk me after laying an egg against the Carolina Panthers. Upsets continue to dominate the league and no favorite is safe this season! Let’s talk about everything we’ve seen around the league and some insights on Bryce Young. Head down to the bottom of the column for this week’s best bet.
1. Maybe Bryce Young was the Problem
In this column last week, I lambasted the Carolina Panthers and their organization for blaming all their problems on first-round draft pick Bryce Young. The Panthers and QB Andy Dalton made me eat my words by looking like a competent NFL franchise. They completely embarrassed the Raiders and Raider Nation. We’ve seen draft busts before, but if this continues, Young might have been one of the least prepared number one overall picks we’ve ever seen. Give the Panthers and head coach Dave Canales credit. I’m going to have to eat my words on that take.
2. Overpaying Above Average Quarterbacks
In the NFL, you can never pay too much for a truly elite player. Patrick Mahomes, Josh Allen, TJ Watt, Myles Garrett, these players are all worth every penny they received. The real danger comes when you overpay an above-average talent. We see two cases this week.
The Cowboys looked the best when Dak Prescott was on his rookie contract. Now that they’ve broken the bank for Dak, we see both sides of the ball have serious defections on the line of scrimmage. The Cowboys are no longer winning the battle up front. They cannot afford to pay AND keep the players that allowed them to succeed. Overpaying an above-average player has consequences. The Dallas Cowboys and their fans are suffering those consequences right now.
On the flip side, the Vikings decided they were no longer going to pay the hefty price tag to get above-average play from QB Kirk Cousins. They let the Atlanta Falcons overpay that man. In Sam Darnold, Minnesota is now getting the same production from a player earning 20% of the salary.
With the money the Vikings saved, they were able to add Jonah Williams, Jerry Tillery, Jihad Ward, Jonathan Greenard and Andrew Van Ginkel. These players have helped the Vikings defense become one of the top units in the league. Defensive coordinator Brian Flores now has the tools to work with, and is creating an unstoppable unit. I love using these two teams as an example because it shows how when you overpay an average player it hamstrings you. By being courageous and not paying a player who doesn’t deserve it, your franchise can reap the rewards.
3. Injuries are ravaging than NFC West
The NFC West has been decimated by injuries, as the San Francisco 49ers and the Los Angeles Rams continue to lose top players. Even the Arizona Cardinals felt the injury bug this week, losing defensive lineman Justin Jones for the season. TE Trey McBride is entering concussion protocol as well.
This leaves the Seattle Seahawks at the top of the division right now. But the Seahawks have had the easiest schedule so far in the NFL this season. Are the Seahawks for real? Time will tell, but right now it seems like things are falling in place for them to win this division.
Best Bet
I’ll continue to ride the hot hand that is the Pittsburgh Steelers. They’re 3-0 and currently have the best defense in football. Steelers coach Mike Tomlin has seamlessly integrated QB Justin Fields into the role of starting quarterback. Fields now only has to do his job, rather than save a floundering franchise, which he was expected to do in Chicago. Tomlin is a master of setting expectations and holding players accountable, and Fields is thriving in this system.
It’s tough to fade the Indianapolis Colts because I love to base my handicaps on the line of scrimmage. The Colts have one of the best offensive lines in football. However, I do rate the Atlanta Falcons offensive line highly and the Steelers were able to wreak havoc against that line. Simply put, as long as TJ Watt is on the field, you need to bet on the Pittsburgh Steelers.
Best Bet: Pittsburgh Steelers -2 (-108) at Bookmaker
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