By Spread Astaire
The AFC West is home to the Super Bowl champion Kansas City Chiefs. The division also boasts one of the most impressive arrays of coaching staff’s in the NFL. Let’s take a look at how to approach futures betting this season in the AFC West.
Kansas City Chiefs: The Futures Favorite Again
The Kansas City Chiefs are coming off another Super Bowl winning year. The Chiefs have won the AFC West for eight consecutive years. They look to continue that streak with impressive offensive upgrades. The Chiefs added wide receiver’s Xavier Worthy and Hollywood Brown to their core of Patrick Mahomes, Travis Kelce, and Rashee Rice.
The Chiefs major loss was that of all-pro cornerback L’Jarius Sneed leaving in free agency to join the Tennessee Titans. Sneed was crucial in the Chiefs’ playoff run last year with his ability to shut down the opposing team’s best receiver. The Chiefs will look to win the battle at the line of scrimmage and outscore opponents as their defense definitely took a hit with a loss of Sneed.
Overall, Kansas City has the best quarterback in the NFL and one of the best coaches in Andy Reid. Barring an injury to Mahomes it’s hard to see how the Chiefs do not win the AFC West for the ninth consecutive year. As long as Reid is coaching and Mahomes is healthy, this team will continue to dominate. You can put the Chiefs to win the AFC West in a parlay and also bet their regular season win total over 11.5 wins.
The Play:
Kansas City Chiefs Win Total Over 11.5
Los Angeles Chargers: New Coach, Different Results?
At first, I was all in on the Los Angeles Chargers with new head coach Jim Harbaugh. The Chargers have always had an exemplary roster yet bad coaching and bad injury luck has cursed this franchise. With Harbaugh the mix, I expected them to finally make the leap into a true contender.
What changed? Star Quarterback Justin Herbert has come down with plantar fasciitis. Even if Herbert is able to get on the field eventually, this is the kind of injury they could linger and hurt him all season. He also is going to miss valuable training camp reps with his new receivers as his two top targets, Keenan Allen and Mike Williams are off to new locations. Herbert has Ladd McConkey, Josh Palmer, and Quentin Johnston to get the ball too, but without this valuable training camp time to establish a rapport, this team could be off to a slow start.
At one point I thought the losses of Keenan Allen and Mike Williams were being overblown by a fantasy and player prop driven market, however, with the injury to Herbert, this Chargers team is in trouble. There are bright spots, however. The Chargers will have an excellent offensive line and that always plays well in the NFL. The Chargers defense should be greatly improved under Jim Harbaugh. Harbaugh was a quarterback but he coaches like a defensive lineman. Harbaugh’s teams are always tough and his penchant for running the ball keeps his defense out of the bad situations that pass-happy coaches can put their defenses into.
The Chargers will still be formidable and well coached. However, without Herbert being 100% it is hard to see them as a real contender. This injury has changed my stance and I’m now going under on the Chargers win total.
Los Angeles Chargers Win Total Under 8.5
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Las Vegas Raiders: Improved Defense and Offensive Uncertainty
Full disclosure here, I am a Raiders fan. However, I do think this team is being underlooked because of its lack of offensive firepower. The Raiders do have a troubling quarterback situation, with career journeyman Gardner Minshew or unimpressive youngster Aidan O’Connell at the helm.
In the Raiders favor however is a rapidly improving defense. The Raiders defense has been terrible for the last 20 years but seems to be turning the corner under head coach Patrick Graham. The defense played well under the leadership of All Pro Maxx Crosby last year. Then they made the best free agent signing of the offseason when they grabbed Miami defensive tackle Christian Wilkins to man the middle. The game of football is won on the line of scrimmage and the Raiders defensive line will control the line of scrimmage barring injury to these top two stars.
Will the Raiders score enough to take advantage of this elite defense? We saw this with the Cleveland Browns last year. A good defense can take you a long way.
Will the Raiders be as good as the Browns were last year? I don’t know if they will be that good, however, they will be good enough to keep them in almost every single game. Defense travels in the NFL and the Raiders are going to be live in every contest. Even though they will not put up a lot of points, the Raiders should go over their win total of 6.5.
Las Vegas Raiders Win Total Over 6.5
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Denver Broncos: Another Year, Another New Quarterback
When Sean Payton arrived at the Denver Broncos, we thought that this team would be an immediate contender. However, salary cap mistakes with older players and making one of the worst trades in NFL history for Russell Wilson has hamstrung this team financially. Payton will try to make it work.
He will do so in a controversial manner. New quarterback Bo Nix is one of the most polarizing players on the board. Payton seems smitten with Nix and took him number 12 overall. However, many GMs revealed that they had a second round grade on Nix and felt the Broncos overdrafted him. Whether or not Payton is right about this draft gamble will determine the Broncos future.
Because of the mistakes made with the Wilson contract, the Broncos defense is not as good as it has been, as they’ve lost key players from all three levels of the defense. However, they should still be good enough to be formidable if the offense can be good. This is Payton’s toughest challenge yet. Can he turn Bo Nix into a player that will be serviceable at the NFL level? I think he will and the Broncos will go over their 5.5 win total.
Denver Broncos Win Total Over 5.5
Futures Betting Recap:
Kansas City Chiefs Win Total Over 11.5 (-115)
Los Angeles Chargers Win Total Under 8.5 (-115)
Las Vegas Raiders Win Total Over 6.5 (-110)
Denver Broncos Win Total Over 5.5 (-115)
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