By Tyler Hicks
Today we’ll dive into what may be the toughest division in football: the AFC North. Last season all four of these teams won at least 9 games while three of them also made the playoffs. In the off-season we saw some big roster and coaching changes with all four teams. Let’s sift through this and see how the AFC North pans out this season. Here’s the Nuke the House AFC North Futures Betting Guide for 2024:
Baltimore Ravens: Super Bowl Aspirations
The reigning AFC North division champs finished the regular season at 13-4. This was good enough to give them the first round bye in the playoffs. They smashed the Houston Texans 34-10 in the divisional round. Unfortunately, they laid an egg in the AFC Championship against the Kansas City Chiefs.
In the offseason, they lost defensive coordinator Mike Macdonald to Seattle. He’ll be replaced by Zach Orr who was the inside linebacker coach last season. The Ravens will be without key ILB Patrick Queen who signed with their rivals, the Pittsburgh Steelers. Queen was a very key part of this defense accounting for 133 total tackles last season.
Some other notable losses were CB Ronald Darby, OLB Jadeveon Clowney and Safety Geno Stone. They did draft a CB in the first round but didn’t do much to address their other losses.
On the offensive side of the ball the Ravens made some big moves in free agency, signing RB Derrick Henry. Let’s look at some other moves that are going to really impact this team.
Baltimore lost a lot of depth on the OL this off season losing both starting Guards. They lost Kevin Zeitler who played 88% of snaps last year. They also lost John Simpson who played 99% of snaps. As if those losses aren’t bad enough, they also lost backup Center Sam Mustipher. These are the kind of moves that don’t get talked about enough mainly because offensive linemen don’t score fantasy points. But these are the moves that make or break a team in the end.
Behind the solid offensive line they had last year, Lamar Jackson was able to put together his 2nd MVP season. What happens if this OL takes a drastic step backwards? Do we see Lamar’s injuries begin to reappear after what was a mostly healthy season last year?
Backup QB Tyler Huntley also left in free agency. In the past, he has been able to step in for Lamar. If Lamar goes down this team could nose dive in the standings. Even with those worries, I still believe this is one of the better teams in the AFC North division.
John Harbaugh as a coach doesn’t take any team lightly. They are known to “bully” bad teams when given the chance. The RPO plays with Jackson & Henry are going to give teams fits all year. TE Mark Andrews had an entire offseason to recover from a season-ending fractured fibula.
This is the second year for standout WR Zay Flowers. The Ravens are likely to still win 10+ games while also vying for the divisional title again. My final prediction for this Ravens team will be they finish the season with a 12-5 record.
THE PLAY: Ravens over 11.5 wins
Cincinnati Bengals: Burrow is Back
The Bengals have a potent offense. These elite playmakers are just a few years removed from a Super Bowl appearance. They’re looking to rebound after only going 9-8 last season. The Bengals saw star quarterback Joe Burrow go down midseason, which hampered Cincinnati from getting to the playoffs. Burrow’s health is key for this team when he’s playing at his elite level. You can argue he’s the second best QB in the league. Keeping him on the field is going to be a must.
The Bengals lost offensive coordinator Brian Callahan when he became Head Coach of the Titans. The Bengals will promote QB coach Dan Pitcher to replace him. They franchise tagged Tee Higgins but lost their main slot WR Tyler Boyd in free agency. Expect Trenton Irwin, Andrei Iosivas or rookie Jermaine Burton to fill that role this season.
They also moved on from RB Joe Mixon this off season but picked up veteran Zack Moss to replace him. Look for second-year player Chase Brown to get some of that work at the RB spot. The team made a few other moves I liked this offseason: upgrading at the RT spot with Trent Brown and signing TE Mike Gesick.
Possibly their biggest loss of the offseason came on their defensive line losing Defensive Tackle DJ Reader. However, they did everything possible to replace him by signing Sheldon Rankins while also using a 2nd & 3rd round pick to draft two more DT’s. They also improved their safety spots by re-signing Vonn Bell after one year in Carolina & signing away starting safety Geno Stone from the Ravens.
The moves this team made this offseason have them poised to go from last to first. I can also see putting their name right back into that super bowl contender group. In the Bengals, we have a team that has improved defensively, replaced their losses in free agency on the offensive side of the ball and will play the easiest schedule in this division by a mile while also having the best QB in the division.
I’m going to say it again because it really does decide this team’s fate: IF Joe Burrow is healthy this team is going to be a force to be reckoned with in the AFC North and across the league. This is my pick to go ahead and reclaim the division title finishing the season with a 13-4 record edging out the Ravens for first. The Joe Burrow revenge tour begins now.
THE PLAY: Bengals to win the AFC North at +165
Cleveland Browns: Team of Uncertainty
The Cleveland Browns are the hardest team to handicap in this division. They finished last year 11-6 while making the playoffs even while losing starting QB Deshaun Watson and all-world RB Nick Chubb mid-season to injuries. Joe Flacco stepped up to lead this team but he’s now in Indy being used as Anthony Richardsons insurance plan while the Browns went out and signed Jameis Winston, a VERY different kind of player from Flacco.
They also signed Tyler Huntley so they seem to be very aware of Watson’s health problems and want multiple outs if things go wrong at the QB spot.
This team’s defense shouldn’t skip a beat this season. After all, they were one of the best units last year. I expect that to stay the course this season as they’ll be led by pass rushers Myles Garrett & Za’Darius Smith.
On offense, the Browns added WR Jerry Jeudy via trade from the Denver Broncos adding him to the group of Amari Cooper, Elijah Moore and David Njoku. The Browns main pass catchers gives Watson possibly the best WR group of his career, but will his body let him ever return to that elite level of play we saw him have in Houston?
This team however is coached by one of the better Head Coaches in Kevin Stefanki. They signed offensive coordinator Ken Dorsey (formerly with the Bills) to replace Alex Van Pelt. I don’t expect this team to be a Super Bowl contender but they will be a tough out every week for whoever they face with this defense. Add in those ridiculous weather games we get in Cleveland every year, and the opposing team is at the mercy of the elements and this defense.
I’m projecting this team to finish the year at 9-7 missing out on the playoffs. I also wouldn’t be surprised to see them steal a Wild Card spot from another team. Hypothetically, if Watson does get back to playing at an elite level this team is going to be a nightmare for almost everyone not named the Kansas City Chiefs but I truly believe those days are past us.
The Play: Pass
Pittsburgh Steelers: Quarterback Questions
The Steelers saw new General Manager Omar Khan make a plethora of moves this offseason, most notably moving on from second-year QB Kenny Pickett after signing Russell Wilson. The Pickett trade then triggered the Steelers to trade for Justin Fields from the Bears for almost nothing. We could see both QBs this year but I personally believe Fields will end up beating out Wilson sooner than later.
Offensive coordinator Matt Canada was sent packing in the off season he will be replaced by former Falcons Head Coach Arthur Smith, who has a decent track record as an OC but his stint in Atlanta has some people. The Steelers also moved on from WR Diontae Johnson, trading him to Carolina. George Pickens likely takes over alot of those vacated targets, but who will emerge as the WR2 or even WR3? By the looks of it the Steelers will rely on rookie Roman Wilson (already injured in camp), gadget player Calvin Austin and Van Jefferson.
Pickens could be in for a very frustrating season if he’s doubled/bracketed almost every play due to him being the only real down-field threat the Steelers may have. They made a few solid additions to an already solid defense, picking up ILB Patrick Queen from Baltimore, safety Deshon Elliott from Miami and CB Donte Jackson from Carolina. This defense should be able to rely on their front seven to ease the pressure on the secondary which is the weakest part of this defense by far.
The Pittsburgh defense also seems to go as TJ Watt goes over the last few seasons. When he misses a game they can’t generate any pressure, leaving this defense to be picked. Watt’s health is of course crucially important to the Steelers’ success this season.
I’m expecting Arthur Smith to lean heavily on the running back duo of Najee Harris & Jaylen Warren but do we really trust him to do that? Both of these quarterbacks have highs we can point to but they also have some low points as well that are REALLY bad. What if neither guy works out? What if the Wide Receiver room is a bottom 3 unit outside of Pickens?
There’s a lot of important questions we need answered that we won’t get till we see actual games played. It’s very easy to stick to the “Tomlin has always led them to a winning season” narrative but at some point everything good comes to an end. The schedule’s back end is doing this team no favors either. From week 11 until the end of the regular season they’ll play all six division games, as well as Philadelphia and the reigning champion Kansas City Chiefs. The Steelers will also be a part of the in-season “Hard Knocks” program.
Could Tomlin pull it off again or could they possibly improve that WR room with a big trade before the season begins? It’s very possible. However, this division has to have a team that finishes last and I believe it’s the Steelers turn to do so. I have them finishing 7-10, ending the streak of winning seasons. There’s just too many factors leading into this year that I don’t trust. If everything goes the Steelers’ way, 9+ wins will be the ceiling and I’ll eat my words.
The Play: Pass
Bet recap:
Ravens over 11.5 wins (-115)
Bengals to win the AFC North at +165
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