By JC Zargo (@daddyzargs)
Week 4 is underway, and we have a solid set of data to base on picks on this week. This is the point in the season where things even out. There’s enough data that everyone can see what each team is actually made of.
Today I’ll give my best NFL Sunday bets for the Rams @ Bears and Steelers @ Colts games.
Los Angeles Rams @ Chicago Bears Breakdown
The Rams have had a shaky start to the season, with their defense being the biggest weakness. LA has the fourth-worst pass defense in the league.
They face Caleb Williams, who threw for 363 yards against Indianapolis. The sportsbooks seem to think Williams is poised for another outrageous performance.
Despite losing to the Texans and Colts, the Bears are favored by three playing at home. Vegas considered these two teams equal, and that is a slap in the face to Jared Goff and Sean McVay.
These teams both enter play 1-2, but Los Angeles had a far tougher schedule. LA’s one win against the 49ers is far more impressive than Chicago’s win against Tennessee.
The Bears’ defense has posted far better numbers, but that’s hardly impressive given the offense they have faced. Statistically, an argument can be made for Chicago, but all the empirical data point to an easy Rams win.
The Play: Los Angeles +3 (-110)
Player Prop
Caleb Williams’ props saw a severe hike from last week, making most of them not worth a second look, however, there is one prop that sticks out more than Williams’ painted nails.
In Week 1 Williams had 27 pass attempts, in Week 2 he threw 37 times, then last week he went to the air 52 times against the Colts. Despite the clear increase in pass plays, his prop has remained in the low 30s. It would be incredibly challenging to predict how many passing yards or touchdowns he’ll have, but it’s hardly a bold prediction to say he’ll throw 33+ times.
The Play: Caleb Williams Over 32.5 Passing Attempts (-115)
Pittsburgh Steelers @ Indianapolis Colts Breakdown
While recycling material is not something I enjoy doing, making money is far more important than writing about different teams every week. Steelers UNDERS is a well we may be visiting every week this season.
It’s not often we see a team like Pittsburgh. Their defense is truly outstanding, and while their offense is solid, there’s never a fear that they’ll cover the total alone. It’s not a fluke, the Steelers will win games despite scoring no more than 20 points.
Shockingly, the total is up from the last two weeks. Facing off against both the Chargers and Broncos the total was 36, but visiting Indianapolis, the number is up to 40. Oddsmakers think highly of the Colts’ offense, but they’ve just opened the door for some solid payouts.
The NFL Sunday Free Plays:
Under 40 (-110)
SGP – Under 37.5 & Steelers Moneyline (+268)
Sports Betting NFL Sunday Free Play Recap:
Rams +3 (-110)
Caleb Williams Over 32.5 Passing Attempts (-115)
Game Total Under 40 (-110)
SGP: Under 37.5 & Steelers Moneyline (+268)
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