By Ray Greyfox (@raygreyfox)
Here is our free NCAA play breakdown for 9/13/24
The Game: Hawaii @ Sam Houston State, Saturday 9/14, 7:00 est, Bowers Stadium, Huntsville, TX
The Line: Sam Houston State -4.5
Sports Betting Play of the Day Breakdown for Rainbow Warriors @ Bearkats NCAA GAME
The Bearkats and Rainbow Warriors opened with Sam Houston at -2.5, I bought it at 3, and it currently sits at 4.5.
Going off of my ratings, this game is fairly priced, but there are a few factors that make me side with the Bearkats here.
Season History
Sam Houston (1-1) opened with a road win at Rice, and a road loss at UCF 45-14. They have played FBS competition in both games. Hawaii (1-1) hosted a basement-bottom FCS team in Delaware State, who they only outgained by 71 yards. They then lost 16-13 at home to UCLA, who outgained the Rainbow Warriors by just 65 yards.
Coaching Edge
KC Keeler is at the helm for Sam Houston, and he’s led their charge to the FBS level. Don’t let his 3-9 record with the Bearkats fool you.
At D-III Rowan (formerly named Glassboro State), he was 85-21-1 leading them to 4 NJAC titles in an 8-year run.
Keeler led the Mighty Fighting Delaware Blue Hens to a national championship with Joe Flacco. He moved on to Sam Houston and won another championship at the FCS Level. Now his Sam Houston team is D1.
Former Hawaii standout QB, Timmy Chang is now calling the shots at his alma mater. As fine a player as Chang was, he is new to coaching, having gone 8-18 overall.
Backing the Bearkats
I see the Bearkats with a talent edge in this game. They have home-field advantage and a massive coaching edge to go along with a special teams edge.
I grabbed the -3 early but I see no issue with laying the current 4.5. Look for the Bearkats to overwhelm Hawaii in the Texas heat.
The Play: Sam Houston State -4.5 (Good up to -5)
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