By Reed Cooper
Sports Betting Play of the Day for August 16, 2024
Federated Auto Parts 400
The NASCAR sports betting play: Kyle Larson Over Ryan Blaney
Lines: Larson -120
NASCAR Sports Betting Play of the Day Breakdown
In the Gen-7 car, Kyle Larson has been one of the two best drivers when it comes to speed. Since 2022, on tracks 1.5 miles or larger, he has finished the race ranked in the top five a whopping 11 of 15 races.
In nine of the last 11 races in this package, Larson has finished top five in speed. Overall he as a 4.93 average finish in speed ranks which ranks #1 amongst drivers.
The drawback for Larson has been finishing some of these races. He’s had issues brought on by himself, his pit team or others on the track. Those factors are unpredictable and you have to go in based on pure speed. In 2024 based on the criteria above Larson is 3-0 verse his opponent which includes two wins.
Ryan Blaney has been no slouch under this criteria since 2022, finishing 9.07 in speed ranks. The concern with Blaney is over the past five races meeting this criteria he has speed ranks of over 10 in three of them. The two races he was in the top ten both fell at Las Vegas.
I’m not one to pay juice but the numbers line up on paper for Larson in this matchup. It’s not often that the juice is this low for Larson in H2H matchups making it a fine time to jump on board.
Best Bet: Kyle Larson -120
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